★ 國網吉林省電力有限公司松原供電公司 李楊

摘要：針對現有規劃方法在應對碳排放不確定性和新能源波動方面的不足，本文提出了一種基于碳排放約束的電力系統多場景規劃方法。該方法分析了電力系統碳排放的主要影響因素及多場景特性，構建了包含碳排放總量約束和碳排放強度約束的多場景優化模型，將碳排放超額部分通過碳交易成本機制與系統經濟性進行耦合，并采用兩階段優化框架，將機組啟停決策與各場景下的出力優化相結合，并利用列和約束生成算法（C&CG）有效降低了大規模場景下的求解復雜度。實驗結果表明，本文方法能夠在不同新能源出力及負荷波動情景下，有效降低系統碳排放總量與碳交易成本，并實現碳排放約束的魯棒滿足，較傳統方法在低碳性與經濟性方面均具有明顯優勢。

關鍵詞：碳排放約束；電力系統；多場景規劃；規劃方法

Abstract: In response to the shortcomings of existing planning methods in dealing with carbon emission uncertainties and fluctuations of new energy , this paper proposes a multi-scenario planning method for power systems based on carbon emission constraints. The main influencing factors of power system carbon emissions and the characteristics of multi-scenarios are analyzed, and a multi- scenario optimization model including carbon emission total quantity constraints and carbon emission intensity constraints is constructed. The excess carbon emissions are coupled with the system economy through the carbon trading cost mechanism. A two-stage optimization framework is adopted, combining the unit  start-stop decision with the output optimization in each scenario, and the Column Generation and Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is utilized to effectively reduce the complexity of solving large-scale scenarios. Experimental results show that this method can effectively reduce the total carbon emissions and carbon trading costs ofthe system under different scenarios of new energy output and load fluctuations, and achieve robust satisfaction of carbon emission constraints . Compared with traditional methods, it has obvious advantages in terms of low-carbon and economic performance.

Key words: Carbon emission constraints; Power system; Multi-scenario planning; Planning metho

在線預覽：基于碳排放約束的電力系統多場景規劃方法研究.pdf

摘自《自動化博覽》2026年5月刊